Kentucky Derby guide: Key narratives and top wagering picks
With the horses entered and post positions assigned, the stage is set for Saturday’s 150th Kentucky Derby. The morning line has been established, and the final countdown has begun. It’s now or never for those of us, including yours truly, who aim to impress our friends and perhaps boost our bank accounts by selecting the winning horse.
I was sorting through this extensive group of 20 horses, racing careers as 3-year-olds, and limited racing experience for many appealing opportunities for both experienced bettors and casual enthusiasts.
Numerous methods can be used to analyze the Derby. Below are some key statistics, patterns, and perspectives that could potentially assist in guiding your thoughts and refining your views on this year’s Kentucky Derby.
The Kentucky Derby’s qualifying system, introduced in 2013, significantly altered the race’s format, making it a crucial point of reference.
Before 2013, the allocation of Derby slots was based solely on the amount of money earned in various stakes races, which enabled horses that were not well-suited to Derby’s distance and style (such as short-distance sprinters) to secure a spot and disrupt the normal flow of the race.
Beginning in 2013, eligibility for the Derby has been determined by the points earned by the leading contenders in specific races. This method has resulted in fields that feature more horses with a proven track record of performing well in races similar to the Derby.
The phrase “crossed the wire first” is frequently mentioned here about recent developments. This is because in the 2019 and 2021 Derbies, the first horses that crossed the finish line – Maximum Security in 2019 and Medina Spirit in 2021 – were later disqualified, and the second-place horses were declared the official winners. However, for the context of our discussion, it is more beneficial to focus on the horses that originally finished first in those Derbies.
Chosen as favorites for a good cause
In the prestigious Kentucky Derby, where 20 talented horses compete, it’s common to anticipate unpredictability and seek out a dark horse that offers the potential for a substantial payout with a minimal investment. The Derby has a history of stunning upsets, leaving many wishing they had taken a chance on a long shot like Rich Strike, who defied odds of 80-1 to emerge victorious two years ago.
While the Rich Strikes are undoubtedly exciting, they are also relatively uncommon. In horse racing, favorites emerge victorious in approximately 35% of all races held nationwide in a given year. Furthermore, since the Derby adopted its current qualification system in 2013, favorites have enjoyed an even higher success rate in this particular race.
Out of the 11 Derbies held since 2013, the favorite has emerged victorious in six races, representing a success of 54.5%. In instances where the favorite did not win, it typically performed well, finishing no worse than fifth place. If you had bet the minimum amount of $2 on each favorite to win from 2013 onwards, you would currently be ahead by $19.40, almost doubling your initial investment.
Despite that, the top pick for this year, Fierceness, comes to the Derby with a rather unique performance history. He has secured victory in three previous races in a dominating manner, with a total margin of victory amounting to 31 lengths. However, his performance in two other races has been disappointing: finishing seventh by a considerable margin in the Champagne Stakes last fall and placing third in a puzzling manner in the Holy Bull Stakes in February as the heavy favorite against questionable competition. Many view Fierceness as a horse with high potential for success or significant failure.
Will there be a repeat of the previous breakdown?
The pace of the race early on is a crucial factor in determining the outcome. A rapid start tends to drain the energy of the horses at the front, leaving them with little left in the tank for the final stretch. This allows horses lagging to make up ground and overtake the tired leaders, ultimately securing victory.
The intrigue surrounding this year’s Derby is amplified by the stark contrast in running styles between the two top contenders, with one favorite relying on a blistering pace and the other favoring a more systematic approach.
Sierra Leone tends to hang back and gather momentum for a powerful surge, while Fierceness likes to position himself near the front. If the race has a fast pace, Sierra Leone will have an advantage, but Fierceness may struggle if lured into a too-hot pace. Opting for a more controlled pace initially could benefit Fierceness as the race progresses.
The last two Derbies saw the quickest opening half-miles, with the winners trailing far behind at that point. Interestingly, the only other recent race that was won by a deep closer, Mage, also had a fast early pace. Conversely, slower early paces favored horses either leading or close to the lead. Despite the past two years, early speed has generally held up well in recent Derbies.
Fierceness’ initial goal on Saturday is to start the race smoothly and secure his desired position at the front of the pack. This may prove challenging as he is starting from the 17th post and must swiftly maneuver towards the inner part of the track.
The race’s outcome hinges on Fierceness’s strategy, as he must navigate a potentially intense pace battle. Other horses, such as Track Phantom, T O Password, Dornoch, and Just a Touch, are expected to fight for the lead, potentially setting a blistering pace. The question remains whether Fierceness will engage in an early, exhausting duel or maintain a comfortable position, allowing him to conserve energy for a powerful finish. The precedent set by Justify in 2018, where he overcame a quick early pace to emerge victorious, serves as a reminder of the importance of adaptability in racing.
In addition, Sierra Leone is expected to compete with other strong closers towards the rear of the pack. Horses like Catching Freedom and Honor Marie, also known for their late-race surges, will likely be vying for a position similar to Sierra Leone. All of them will benefit from a swift pace at the front of the pack.
Speed ratings: Is there a specific point?
Analyzing the performance of all 20 horses in the race can be overwhelming. It becomes a challenging task because they are all young horses, aged three years old, and have limited racing experience. Additionally, their journey to the Derby has been diverse, as they have competed in different qualifying races held at various tracks with different layouts and conditions.
Various speed ratings have been developed to simplify comparing the speed of horses into a single numerical value. These ratings are generated using different formulas, with the Beyer Speed Figure system being the most popular, named after its creator, Andrew Beyer. These numbers are found in the Daily Racing Form, a publication commonly seen at horse racing tracks. The higher the speed rating, the quicker the horse is considered to be.
According to the Beyer Ratings, Fierceness stands out as the clear front-runner in this year’s field, boasting an impressive rating of 110 that significantly surpasses that of his closest competitors.
Additionally, a Beyer figure expert calculated the estimated high rating of 101 for Japan’s Forever Young, which is unofficial and based on race in the Middle East. Mystik Dan scored 101 on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park in February, but apart from that race, his highest rating is only 89. This implies that Mystik Dan might perform better on a wet track (meaning that if it rains on Saturday, he could become a favored choice).
Since 2000, six horses with the highest Beyer ratings have won the Kentucky Derby: Justify (2018), California Chrome (2014), Street Sense (2007), Big Brown (2008), War Emblem (2002), and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000). Maximum Security (2019) was initially declared the winner but was later disqualified due to interference. Twelve horses who finished first since 2000 had one of the top three Beyer ratings.
Since 2000, only two horses that won the Kentucky Derby did not have a previous 94 Beyer rating or better in a stakes race of a mile or longer. Those two horses, Mine That Bird (2009) and Rich Strike (2022) were long-shot winners with Beyer ratings of 81 and 84, respectively. Neither of them won another race after their surprising Derby victories. Interestingly, half of the horses in this year’s Derby field have already achieved a 94 Beyer rating or better.
The impressive 110 Beyer speed figure of Fierceness, coupled with the significant nine-point difference between him and the next-best contender, explains why he is considered the front-runner in this race. However, it’s important to note that having a marked Beyer advantage doesn’t guarantee victory, as shown by Bellamy Road’s sixth-place finish in 2005 despite having a 12-point edge over the rest of the field.
Fraction fun at last
Jennie Rees, a respected horse racing journalist who manages publicity for Kentucky Downs, is credited with this perspective. She suggests that the performance of horses in finishing strongly in previous races could indicate their fitness and endurance, especially given that the ¼-mile Derby is usually the longest distance they have ever covered.
To assess this, Rees suggested examining the performance of each horse in its last race before the Derby. He believed that horses should be given credit for finishing the final quarter-mile in 13 seconds or less or the last three-eighths of a mile in 38 seconds or less. Although not foolproof, most recent Derby champions have met at least one of these criteria.
Who among the participants this year will be evaluated based on the “final fractions” concept? We thank J. for Bloodhorse, who meticulously performed calculations to assign numerical values to each horse. Due to the absence of precise official timings in all Derby prep races, some subjectivity is present, and different analysts may calculate times differently.
Johnson presents a detailed and convincing approach, and he discovered that horses in the current year’s lineup the requirements: Catalyticoch, Epic Ride, First, Just a Touchhold, Sierra Leone, T O Password, and West Saratoga.
Most of them are unlikely candidates, except Sierra Leone and Just a Touch, who took first and second place in the Blue Grass Stakes a month ago. Sierra Leone’s inclusion on the list is particularly surprising, given his dominant performance in the stretch run of that race. Some argue that the Keeneland surface gave an advantage to front-running horses, making Sierra Leone’s come-from-behind victory even more impressive, regardless of the timing.
The rest of the horses in the Derby field can boast of meeting the criteria for “final fractions,” except Society Man, a long-shot contender who falls short in one category and only narrowly qualifies in the other, clocking a 12.95-second final quarter-mile in the Wood Memorial.
The Influence of Japan
In 1989, Sunday Silence, an American horse, achieved greatness by winning the Derby and Preakness, the first two races of the Triple Crown. However, after his racing career, he was not in demand as a stallion until a Japanese breeder saw potential in him and brought him to Japan. Sunday Silence thrived as a sire, becoming a cornerstone of modern Japanese horse racing.
Japanese-bred horses, many of which trace their lineage back to Sunday Silence, have made significant advancements on the global equestrian scene in recent years. They have claimed victory in notable events such as two prestigious Breeders’ Cup races and the world’s wealthiest races like the $20 million Saudi Cup and the $12 million Dubai World Cup. It seems inevitable that they will soon succeed in the Derby as well.
While Derma Sotogake’s finishing position may not be impressive, it’s important to consider the context. With a small sample size and challenges faced during the race, such as issues at the starting gate and traffic, his performance was better than the results suggest.
This year’s Japanese entrants bring a distinct set of challenges, having had to traverse long distances to reach Kentucky and facing the added variable of running on unfamiliar North American terrain for the first time. How will they acclimate?
Both horses will need to overcome historical challenges. Forever Young’s hurdle lies in the UAE Derby in Dubai, the event he triumphed to secure a spot in Louisville. After competing in that race, none of the horses that participated in the Kentucky Derby finished above fifth place, resulting in a combined record of 0-19. On the other hand, T O Password, who has exclusively raced in Japan, has only raced twice in his entire career. It is extremely rare for a horse with such limited experience to win the Derby, with only a few attempts made throughout history. The last horse to achieve this feat was Leonatus in 1883.
The impressive track record of Japanese racehorses in recent years makes this year’s entrants notable, with Forever Young being a top contender. With five consecutive wins under his belt, including against international competition in Dubai, Forever Young has consistently delivered impressive performances that suggest he has what it takes to compete at the highest level. Sunday Silence, a name familiar to sports fans, may again be celebrated as a champion.
Expert Prediction for the Kentucky Derby: A Race to Remember
Let me be upfront: I have only successfully chosen one winner in the Kentucky Derby over the past decade, and even that horse was later disqualified (although I still profited from the bet). This could be a helpful perspective for you, as those close to me have found success by avoiding my picks.
I’m not sold on the front-runner in this race. Firstly, I tend to avoid favorites, particularly in a race as unpredictable as the Derby, where numerous horses are in the running and unexpected events can occur. While Fierceness is undoubtedly skilled, I’m concerned about his erratic performance and the potential risks of starting from such a wide post.
Sierra Leone, a top contender, will face a distinct test with his unconventional running approach as he navigates through a crowded field of 19 horses. His ability to adapt to this unfamiliar scenario will be crucial. While victory is certainly possible, the risks associated with his unique style make it difficult to justify favorable odds.
I enjoy seeking out unlikely winners, and one horse has caught my attention. He has a strategic running approach that has been successful before, avoiding a fast pace but staying close enough to avoid traffic congestion. His performance in the recent Arkansas Derby was impressive, indicating potential for even better results. Furthermore, he meets the criteria for strong finishing sprints. He has achieved a competitive Beyer speed figure of 95, which aligns with the winning standards of previous Derby champions in recent years.
I also have a sentimental side. The trainer is 88 years old, with four Derby wins under his belt, and he continues to go to the stables early every morning in pursuit of more success. While my emotions may influence my decision, the potential rewards are significant, and the Kentucky Derby is a rare opportunity. Therefore, I am choosing D. Wayne Lukas and Just Steel.